Should Larry Walker make it into the Hall of Fame?

I don't really know, because there are no objective criteria for the Hall, but I can help you understand his level of play a little better.

 

Here are his lifetime statistics through 2003.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
 Total 1806 6334 1238 1992 435 57 351 1212 823 1110 222 75 .314 .400 .567 .967

 

Walker led the league in slugging twice, on base percentage twice, and batting average thrice. In 1997, having led in all three of those categories, he also led the league in home runs and extra base hits, and was selected as the National league's Most Valuable Player. According to the similarity studies done by baseball-reference.com, the seven most similar players to Larry Walker include Chuck Klein, Johnny Mize, and (gasp) Joe DiMaggio. Joe D?  If that isn't Hall material, what is?

 

Here are Walker's key statistics side-by-side with those of the most similar player, Hall of Famer Chuck Klein, and the most similar unquestioned superstar, the great DiMaggio

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
 Walker 1806 6334 1238 1992 435 57 351 1212 .314 .400 .567

Klein

1753 6486 1168 2076 398 74 300 1201 .320 .379 .543

DiMaggio

1736 6821 1390 2214 389 131 361 1537 .325 .398 .579

Although Klein and Walker are very similar, the small differences are in Walker's favor. If you remove the runs scored and RBI, which are line-up dependent, Walker is even comparable to DiMaggio (note the items in red typeface).

These numbers suggest that Walker deserves to be in if Klein deserves to be in. He's even a little better than Klein. Forget Klein, because his name doesn't mean much to a casual fan. Consider DiMaggio. Look at the HR, slugging, and OBP for DiMaggio and Walker. If a man can be compared to DiMaggio without making people snicker, surely he's Hall material. Right?

Maybe.

 

But here are Larry Walker's stats broken down by "in Coors" and "out of Coors"

Larry Walker

ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb k avg obp slg
Coors 2050 544 790 174 29 152 512 273 272 .385 .458 .721
other 4284 694 1202 261 28 199 700 550 838 .281 .362 .494
career 6334 1238 1992 435 57 351 1212 823 1110 .314 .393 .567

per 650 plate appearances

ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb k avg obp slg
Coors 574 152 221 49 8 43 143 76 76 .385 .458 .721
other 576 93 162 35 4 27 94 74 113 .281 .362 .494
total 575 112 181 40 5 32 110 75 101 .314 .393 .567

In Coors Field, Larry Walker is better than Ty Cobb and Barry Bonds put together. He has an entire career there that looks like one of Rogers Hornsby's best seasons. Of course, Walker has no magical ability to take advantage of Coors. The park has a massive impact on everyone's stats. Walker hits 104 points higher at Coors than out of it, but Todd Helton's differential is  84 points, and the overall impact seems virtually identical on both players.

Here are Todd Helton's lifetime stats through 2003.

ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb k avg obp slg
Home 1794 455 679 154 14 134 453 288 201 .378 .463 .704
 Away 1710 262 503 125 6 85 287 252 269 .294 .385 .523
 Home per 650 PA 560 142 212 48 4 42 141 90 63 .378 .463 .704
 Away per 650 PA 567 87 167 41 2 28 95 83 89 .294 .385 .523

The impact of Coors on Helton is very similar to its impact on Walker, right down to the detail that they both strike out about 30% less at Coors. I am drawing a preliminary conclusion from the strikeout data that Coors must offer some visibility advantages over other parks, in addition to the impact of the elevation. That, however, is a hasty conclusion, and a story for another day.

Back to Larry Walker ...

When Coors Stadium is factored out of the equation, Walker is quite a different player. Instead of averaging 143 RBI per season of 650 plate appearances, as he does in his home games, he averages 94. His lifetime batting average outside of Coors Field is .281. He is no longer a perfect comparison to Chuck Klein. He is now almost an identical clone of Fred Lynn.

per 650 plate appearances

    ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi bb avg slg obp
Larry Walker outside of Coors 576 93 162 35 4 27 94 74 .281 .494 .362
Fred Lynn 578 89 164 32 4 26 93 72 .283 .484 .362

In the real world, it is virtually impossible to find any two players more similar than the two shown in the comparison above. Playing with it briefly, I couldn't even find one player that similar to himself. Take any player. Compare a randomly selected half of his seasons to the other half, it will not be more comparable than Fred Lynn's career and Larry Walker's career out of Coors.

Of course that does not mean that Larry Walker is a poor player. Far from it. Fred Lynn was a great player in his day, as Walker was in his. Perhaps they both belong in the Hall of Fame, perhaps neither should be in. I don't know.

But I do know this. If one, then the other.

They accomplished the same things outside of Coors Field. They are virtually the same guy. The only difference between Larry Walker and Fred Lynn is the stadium in Denver, so if you vote for Walker and not Lynn, you are casting a ballot that says "one man should get into the Hall of Fame over another simply because he played in Colorado, and for no other reason." Whichever conclusion you draw, you should be aware that you are voting for a player who was as great as Fred Lynn, not a player who was as great as Joe DiMaggio.


Sidebar: of no special importance.

Perhaps it is not really fair to judge a man by what he has done only in the most difficult of circumstances, but as Lady Luck would have it, Walker has played the equivalent of one full season at the three most difficult parks for hitters in modern National League history: Shea Stadium, Dodger Stadium, and the Astrodome. The results are anything but impressive.

AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG
Larry Walker 615 90 146 34 2 17 71 72 154 .237 .316 .382
per 650 PA 581 85 138 32 2 16 67 69 145 .237 .316 .382

Here's what Mike Piazza has done in the same circumstances:

AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG
Mike Piazza 2804 444 806 113 3 180 561 322 435 .309 .380 .544
per 650 PA 583 92 180 23 1 37 117 67 90 .309 .380 .544

This comparison is still not entirely fair to Larry Walker since, as I have pointed out elsewhere, Mike Piazza's lifetime road stats show that he is one of the greatest right handed hitters in the history of baseball.  The point is, however, that stacking up the most difficult conditions does not make every hitter look like a weakling. Under these conditions, Piazza may not look like Hornsby, but he still looks impressive, with 117 RBI per season, compared to Walker's 67.

Here are Walker's lifetime road stats versus Piazza's

AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG
Piazza 2806 491 941 163 3 196 596 313 440 .335 .403 .605
Walker 3197 513 891 186 20 152 512 428 618 .279 .370 .492
                       
Piazza per 650 PA 585 102 196 34 1 41 124 65 92 .335 .403 .605
Walker per 650 PA 573 92 160 33 4 27 92 77 111 .279 .370 .492

It is fun to speculate what Piazza's numbers might be like if Coors could have been his home park for his entire career. Assuming a 94 point batting average differential (halfway between Helton and Walker in that category), Piazza would have hit .429 at Coors. Combined with his lifetime average of .335 on the road, he would now have a lifetime batting average of .362, seriously contending with Cobb for the best ever.

 


Footnote:

  • If you are a baseball genius, you have had the following thought this while reading the article above: "Hey, isn't Klein a poor choice for a comparison? Wasn't Chuck Klein just as powerfully affected by his own home park? Wasn't Baker Bowl the Coors of the 20s and 30s?" Good question. You're absolutely right, but it's a matter for another day. If I were more precise, I would have said that Walker really is as good as Klein, but Klein is nowhere near as good as you think.

Resources: