Baseball 2000
Which National Leaguer joined the most exclusive "club" of them all?
What is the most surprising revelation in the team stats?
Who should be the AL MVP? (Must read NL first, to see the criteria)
Who is the most adaptable hitter in the majors?
Who is the best bet for a surprise monster season next year?
Which players are much better than you think they are?
Which great players are even better than you think they are?
What's the most exciting off-season talk?
Who has the best offense in the majors?
Who has the best pitching in the majors?
How much impact did the individual parks have on statistics?
Which National Leaguer joined possibly the most exclusive "club" of them all?
Todd Helton
In the history of baseball, only three National Leaguers had ever achieved 100 extra base hits in a season. Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, and Chuck Klein. Now there are four. Todd Helton finished the season with 59 doubles, two triples and 42 homers.
Five American Leaguers have done it. How's this for exclusive company: Ruth, Gehrig, Greenberg, Foxx, and Albert Belle.
Total membership in this club, nine players. The seven eligible players are all Hall of Famers. 100%. Of course, Belle may spoil the record, or he may not.
Who seems most likely to go crazy next year?
Richard Hidalgo
The Astros have a tremendous lineup, and play in one of the best homer parks in the majors. The Astros led the majors in dingers at home, and their home park seems to add about 9% to home run totals. Based on home-to-road ratio, it was the second best homer park in the National League, albeit a distant second to you-know-where.
Based on raw home run count, it was number one. The Astros hit 135 in Enron and their opponents hit 131. However, don't confuse this with a Coors effect. The 'Stros also finished second in the majors in homers on the road, and led the NL in road batting average. Although their pitchers allowed 500 runs at home, they also allowed a deplorable 444 on the road.
The Astros offense is really that good, and their pitching is really that bad.
But anyway, Hidalgo did not take advantage of the park. He hit only 16 homers at home, and 28 on the road. Hidalgo led the majors in road homers. Actually, Sammy and A-Rod tied him, but would you have named Hidalgo in that company?
Hidalgo just turned 25 years old. Expect him to improve. And don't expect the park to get any tougher on hitters. And expect his home park luck to turn around next year. Sixty home runs are a distinct possibility. With Bagwell, Moises, Berkman and a healthy Biggio hitting around him, he'll gather a bunch of RBI's along the way. The Astros may not be good, but they'll be fun.
Which fairly obscure players could go crazy if they were in a livelier ballpark?
To name two, Bobby Higginson and Phil Nevin
Comerica Park is the toughest homer park in the majors. It depresses seasonal homer totals almost 20%, and Higginson still managed to hit 30 (12 at home, 18 on the road).
San Diego was tough on hitters. 700 runs scored there by Padres and opponents, 850 on the road. Nevin hit .348 on the road, slugged .634, had an OBP of .414, had 18 homers and 62 RBI's. At home he slugged .447 and had an OBP of .331.
What great players are even better than everyone thinks they are?
A-Rod and Mike Piazza
The Mariners play in what is probably the best pitcher's park in the majors. Although Safeco doesn't depress home run totals as much as Comerica, it has an even more significant impact on total run output and other offensive stats. The Mariners and their opponents hit .248 at Safeco, .281 on the road. They scored about 750 runs at Safeco, more than 900 on the road.
A-Rod hit .316 with 41 homers. The park adjustments indicate that if he played in a neutral park he'd hit 15-20 points higher, with maybe 3-4 more homers, 10-15 more RBI's.
His road stats confirm that, and then some. On the road, A-Rod hit .358 with 28 homers and 81 RBI. He led the majors in road RBI, and tied for the homer lead.
Piazza isn't even from this planet. On the road he hit .377 and slugged .701. He led the National League in slugging on the road. Just to show he's not one-dimensional, he also led the National league in on base percentage on the road, and he only struck out 29 times. And he's got faster hands than Penn and Teller. Any questions?
Shea Stadium is one of the toughest hitters' parks in the majors. Dodger Stadium is as well, so Piazza's entire career, as good as it is, actually understates his ability.
By the way, although Sammy Sosa is not better than people think he is, he is every bit as good. He is not at all favored by Wrigley Field, and is one of the best road hitters in the game. If he played for the Rockies, he'd have a decent shot at 80 homers.
What's the most exciting prospect in the off-season?
Rumored: Manny Ramirez to the Rockies.
I don't know if Ramirez is the best hitter in the majors, but if he isn't, he's close.
Doing all the park adjustments, I figure a healthy Ramirez, playing at the same level as this year, and getting 550 at bats, will be good for about 65 dingers and 175 RBI's, and should hit about .380.
Now if the Rockies can get A-Rod and Piazza and Sosa ….
What is the most surprising thing you can say about the teams?
The mighty Blue Jays and the lowly Tigers have exactly the same offense.
The differences between them are park illusions. Here are a few representative road statistics.
HR RUNS Slug OBP
Jays 110 426 .338 .446
Tigers 108 420 .332 .442
For the season, the Blue Jays outhomered the Tigers by about 70. That's what park effects are all about. If you are a general manager looking for free agents or trades, take a hard look at the Tigers, because they are undervalued. The Tigers get my award for the team that is the greatest amount better than I thought they were.
Which hitter was the most adaptable?
Carlos Delgado.
Amazing stats.
The Blue Jays play in a great homer park, and when he's at home, Delgado hits a ton of homers, 30 to be precise. He also led the majors in slugging percentage at home.
Does that mean he's actually overrated, and is not really that good a hitter? Not at all. When he's on the road, he adapts perfectly. He only hit 11 homers and his slugging dropped to .560, but he led the majors in on base percentage on the road!
No, not really.
Everyone's stats are inflated by Coors, no secret there, but he's not a Coors illusion like some of the Rockies. This is a guy who hit .350 on the road, with nearly a .450 road OBP, and road slugging over .600. This young fella can hit, and he just turned 27.
Pretty much all the rest of the Rockies offense.
Jeff Cirillo hit .236 on the road, with 2 homers and 40 RBI.
Jeffrey Hammonds hit .275 on the road, with 6 homers and 35 RBI.
Larry Walker hit .259 on the road, with 2 homers and 15 RBI in 158 at bats.
And so on.
What is the best offense in the majors?
The Mariners, I guess.
You have three reasonable contenders: the Mariners, the Giants, and the A's. The Mariners scored the most runs on the road, so give them the nod in a close race where any of the three answers might be correct.
The White Sox, Indians, and Cardinals were not in the same category.
Despite scoring nearly 1000 runs, the Rockies certainly have the worst offense in baseball. They scored 633 runs at home, 335 on the road. They hit 49 homers on the road, so far behind the second-worst club in the league that they couldn't even see second-last. (The lowly Phillies hit 78). The Rockies slugged .368 on the road, and the second worst in the majors was .390.
What is the best pitching staff in the majors?
The second and third best are the teams you'd expect.
The Braves are solid, of course.
And the Red Sox are there simply because they would be there if their rotation consisted of Pedro and four Firestone tires. Pedro had a 1.74 ERA, and the second best guy in the league (Clemens) had a 3.70. Look at it this way. The distance between Pedro and Clemens is about the same as the distance between Clemens and you.
Come to think of it, their rotation does consist of Pedro and four Firestone tires
Who should be the National League MVP?
Complicated question. Long answer.
SOME RULES:
It is true not only in crazy examples. It is true in real life as well. If your team scores 800 runs and allows 800, you'll play .500 ball, win 81. Find a way to add 100 runs, with no other changes, you'll play .559 ball. Find a way to subtract 100 runs from your opponents, and you'll play about .566 ball. The difference is about two wins. In today's offensive context, you need 114 offensive runs to equal 100 defensive runs. The reason is because an equal arithmetical run differential is more important in a lower offensive context. In simpler words, if you're going to outscore your opponents by two hundred, make it two hundred to zero, not two thousand to eighteen hundred.
OK, enough rules. Here's the summary. I'm going to start with basic runs created. If the battle is close enough, we'll talk about base stealing, defense, and team standing.
PLAYER COMPARISON
Players compared by basic runs created, park-adjusted.
Players compared by basic runs created on the road.
It seems to me that it is Sammy's MVP to challenge. Basic runs created could be overridden if the other player had some other plusses. Guerrero, Hidalgo and Sheffield are fellow outfielders with no special additional skills on top of Sammy's. Helton and Bagwell are first basemen with no other special skills. Sammy plays for a non-playoff team, but so do the other five guys, so none of them can unseat Sammy for any reason I can see.
We are left with four guys: Sosa, Kent, Bonds, Piazza.
I can't see Bonds because his stats are far enough behind Sammy's, and he no longer has the great plusses he used to have. He stole 11 bases in 14 tries. His defense was solid, but nothing special. Among left fielders, he was third in total chances, fourth in range factor, seventh in percentage, second in assists. Sammy isn't as good, and finished last in assists among right fielders, but the difference can't make up for the offense.
Here's how they did on the road:
| Bonds | Sosa | |
| Batting | .291 | .332 |
| Slugging | .633 | .674 |
| OBP | .431 | .411 |
| HR | 24 | 28 |
| R | 65 | 62 |
| RBI | 48 | 79 |
I can't see any reason to unseat Sammy here, even if you take into account that Bonds helped his team into the playoffs, and Bonds is a better outfielder. Sammy just had too much offense.
Piazza missed a lot of games, and didn't even make a showing in park-adjusted runs created. (162 for Sammy, 122 for Piazza). He played great, and his road stats are superhuman, but I don't think these factors, nor his position advantage, nor the Mets playoff status, could make up for 40 runs.
So you are left with Kent and Sammy.
| Kent | Sosa | |
| Runs created on the road (x2) | 162 | 173 |
| Park-adjusted runs created | 151 | 162 |
Have to go with Kent, even though Sammy initially appears to be ten runs better.
An average second baseman, playing the same amount as Kent, would create 84 runs. (OBP .357, SLG .400). An average right fielder, playing as much as Sammy, would create 120 runs (OBP .381, SLG .520). Kent is 67 runs better than an average second baseman, Sammy only 42 runs better than an average right fielder.
The least productive regular right fielder in the majors had a .416 slugging average and a .331 OBP, which would produce 83 runs over Sammy's playing time. Sammy was therefore about 79 runs better than a presumed replacement (slightly more, actually, since we presume the replacement is not as good as the worst existing right fielder, or he'd already be playing.)
The least productive second baseman had a .332 slugging, .316 OBP, which would produce 62 runs over Kent's playing time, so Kent was 89 runs better than a replacement player.
Plus Kent is about an average or above average second baseman in virtually all fielding categories. Sammy is not one of the better right fielders.
The victories Kent contributed were essential ingredients to make the post-season, but we don't need to punish Sammy for having lousy teammates, because Kent won it fair and square, as far as I can see.
ANY PITCHERS?
Kent's 89 runs above replacement level are equivalent to about eight and a half games in the standings. In other words, if Kent had been injured on opening day and the Giants had to make do at second, you'd expect the Giants would have finished eight and a half games farther back.
As noted earlier, defensive runs have a slightly higher value than offensive runs, so a pitcher could have more cumulative value than Kent if he prevented 80 runs.
Kevin Brown had a 2.58 earned run average over 230 innings, and Randy Johnson had a 2.64 over 248.2 innings. I don't believe it is possible to argue that either of them prevented 80 runs.
The argument could be made in Brown's case only if his replacements would have had a 5.71 ERA pitching for the Dodgers. Not likely at all. My ERA would be lower than that if I got half my starts at Dodger Stadium, and I have a twenty five MPH fastball.
The argument could be made in Johnson's case only if his replacements would have had a 5.55 ERA pitching for the D'backs. Maybe, but the evidence doesn't really support it. Their spot starters did better than that.
There is no convincing case for a pitcher. If Johnson had kept up his torrid early season pace, and if the D'Backs had made it into the post-season, then maybe. But I don't see anything compelling to take it away from Kent.
Who should be the American League MVP?
THE BENCHMARK.
The American League has some great sluggers who had monster years. But let's think for a second.
Pedro Martinez gave up 42 earned runs in 217 innings. The average pitcher in the AL gave up a 4.92 ERA, so Pedro was 74 runs better than an average pitcher. Assuming that a replacement-level pitcher was about 6.00 (the Texas Rangers were at 5.58, and I assume they'd play better guys if they had them), Pedro was 102 runs better than a replacement level pitcher. Pedro was 47 runs better than the second best starter in the league, for heaven's sake! 102 runs better than replacement is worth about 11 games in the standings. Using this method, a hitter would have to be 117 runs better than replacement level to achieve the equivalent. Think about it.
Let's look at it one more way. Pedro went 18-6 for a team that was 67-71 in its other games. I'm estimating that a replacement level pitcher, allowing six and a half runs a game (we're talking all runs now, not just earned runs), would have won 8.5 games in Pedro's 24 decisions, assuming the actual 4.9 runs per game scored by the Red Sox. By this method, Pedro's 18 wins are 9.5 wins above the replacement level, and a hitter would need 100 runs to equal it. Not likely, but let's see if anyone attained it.
THE PLAYERS
Players compared by basic runs created, park-adjusted.
Players compared by basic runs created on the road.
I think we can eliminate Frank Thomas, a DH whose numbers tend to be an illusion of park effects. The White Sox and their opponents scored 950 runs at home, 850 on the road. The Sox hit 124 dingers at home, 91 on the road.
I don't want to eliminate Ramirez, because he probably had the best stats per at-bat, but he missed 44 games, and that depressed his stats to the bottom of the list.
And I think we obviously have to eliminate Edgar, because he wasn't the most valuable player on his own team, and he's a DH who was outhit by a teammate who is a shortstop.
Let's look at the other five in more depth.
Road RCx2 |
Park-Adjusted RC |
Replacement guy at position, same playing time |
Average guy at position, same playing time |
Above replacement |
Above average |
|
Glaus |
154 |
134 |
62 |
96 |
72 |
38 |
Delgado |
146 |
175 |
76 |
113 |
99 |
62 |
Giambi |
145 |
165 |
68 |
101 |
97 |
64 |
Nomar |
142 |
156 |
42 |
83 |
114 |
73 |
A-Rod |
176 |
163 |
40 |
79 |
123 |
84 |
I said a hitter would have to be 117 runs above replacement level in order to be as valuable as Pedro. A-Rod made it. Given the inherent lack of precision in the system, I call it a draw.
I also said Pedro was 74 runs better than an average pitcher. Given the greater value of runs prevented, a hitter would have to be 82 runs above average. A-Rod again was almost exactly at that level.
In my mind, Giambi is also a good candidate. He had the best clutch hitting stats in the league. He hit great with men in scoring position, in the late innings of close games, and with the bases full. And, in the ultimate measure of clutch performance, he almost single-handedly carried his team in September with every game critical.
I wouldn't know which one to vote for. Based on the fact that Pedro will win the Cy Young, I guess I'd vote for A-Rod or Giambi, but that's less logical than sentimental. I think a vote for any of the three is a good vote.
By the way, Glaus is a young kid, just turned 24. Maybe this wasn't his year to be MVP. After all he only hit .284 and struck out 163 times, but there may be some monster seasons coming.
And by the way once more, if the Red Sox have two of the three best players in the league, plus Everett, imagine how bad the rest of their team really is.
How to read. A sample.
The first entry, 133, means that players in Colorado are likely to have 33% more run production in their final seasonal statistics. In other words, the Rockies and their opponents scored 66% more runs in Colorado than on the road, so Coors will affect their home stats by 66%, but only affect the seasonal stats by 33% since the Rockies only play half of their games there. If a team would score 800 runs in a neutral park, 400 at home and 400 on the road, the same team would score 1064 if they played in Colorado, 664 at home and 400 on the road.
Although Coors inflates statistics to a great degree, the impact of most stadiums is subtle. No other park inflated or deflated run production by more than 10%.
Note that Wrigley Field was the toughest hitters' park in 2000. In its history, it has consistently been very favorable to hitters.
Runs OBP SA HR Col 133 111 121 164 Cin 108 102 101 98 Hou 107 100 104 109 Phi 103 101 101 92 Mon 100 98 99 99 Ari 101 103 101 94 StL 100 100 100 105 Atl 99 101 99 93 Pit 98 97 99 101 Mil 96 96 93 89 Fla 95 100 97 89 NY 93 98 98 94 LA 92 95 97 102 SF 91 98 100 97 Chi 90 100 96 92 SD 91 97 95 92 KC 104 102 105 114 Cle 101 101 102 110 Tex 105 103 106 125 Chi 105 101 104 118 Ana 101 101 102 111 NY 103 101 103 116 Min 108 101 102 94 Det 96 101 96 81 Tor 102 99 103 111 Bos 101 100 97 83 Bal 94 100 96 97 Oak 96 97 97 105 Tam 99 98 98 94 Sea 92 95 91 93